Scorecard
Every Kronaxis prediction. Hashed before the event. Scored after.
The scorecard is the foundation of every claim Kronaxis makes, about elections, about software, about people. Each row is a falsifiable prediction with a SHA-256 hash, a public timestamp, the methodology version that produced it, and (when known) the actual outcome. Misses are reported with the same prominence as hits.
Elections lead this ledger for one reason: they are the hardest public test we can set ourselves, declared in advance with a hard, undeniable outcome. The same validated engine is proven well beyond politics, matched to national figures across more than a hundred measures of what people think and do. See the wider validation in Research and data.
Principle
Trust through falsifiability. We commit cryptographic hashes of predictions before events; we publish outcomes when known; we publish misses with the same prominence as hits. The methodology code is open source and any prediction can be independently run again and verified. We add to the ledger; we never delete from it.
Predictions logged
675
665 scored against actual results
KPM-1 v1.0 on [uk_council_election]
28.2%
37 / 131 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-2.2 v15.1 on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
58.8%
77 / 131 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-byelection v1.0 on [uk_council_byelection] (backtest)
75%
9 / 12 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-2.2 v15.1 on [uk_council_byelection] (backtest)
41.7%
5 / 12 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-scotparl v1.0 on [scottish_parliament_election] (backtest)
100%
1 / 1 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-senedd v1.0 on [welsh_senedd_election] (backtest)
0%
0 / 1 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-mayoral v1.0 on [london_mayoral_election] (backtest)
100%
1 / 1 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
51.1%
24 / 47 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
61.7%
29 / 47 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
61.7%
29 / 47 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
68.1%
32 / 47 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
68.1%
32 / 47 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
68.1%
32 / 47 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
68.1%
32 / 47 council-level outcomes correct
KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 on [uk_council_election] (backtest)
68.1%
32 / 47 council-level outcomes correct
Trivial baseline: always-NOC
44.1%
For honest comparison, what "always guess no overall control" would have hit
Methodologies tracked
KPM-1 v1.0 hash a27277bc5500… · commit f4ee2097
LLM-panel synthetic personas + DYNAMICS-8 + tactical voting + seat MC.
Pre-registered
KPM-2.2 v15.1 hash 52df676e792c… · commit 74ff0e5a
Rule-based fragmentation override on KPM-1 vote shares. NW Lab retain + LD-incumbent retain + historical NOC prior + Reform metro sweep + LD strong-leader retain + fragmentation NOC.
Applied as backtest to May 7 2026. Future predictions from v15.1 will be pre-registered.
Backtest
KPM-1 by confidence tier
| Tier | Hits | % |
|---|---|---|
| Toss-up | 36 / 121 | 29.8% |
| Lean | 1 / 10 | 10% |
Coverage register
Coverage
50%
5 of 10 tracked UK elections predicted (rest = honest gaps)
| Election | Date | Type | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorton and Denton | 2026-02-13 | uk_parliamentary_byelection | PREDICTED | |
| English Local Elections 2026 | 2026-05-07 | uk_english_local_elections | PREDICTED | KPM-1 28.5%, KPM-2.2 v15.1 59.2% |
| 2026 Senedd election (Wales) | 2026-05-07 | welsh_senedd_election | PREDICTED | |
| 2026 Scottish Parliament election | 2026-05-07 | scottish_parliament_election | PREDICTED | |
| April 2026 council by-elections (12 events) | 2026-04-02 .. 2026-04-30 | uk_council_byelection_batch | GAP | Engine built AFTER these events landed. From now on (May 11+), the weekly cron will pre-register each by-election prediction before its date. |
| 2024 UK General Election | 2024-07-04 | uk_general_election | GAP | Pre-dates KPM. Documented for completeness; informs UNS_2024_TO_2026 baseline. |
| 2024 London mayoral election | 2024-05-02 | london_mayoral_election | PREDICTED | |
| 2024 Police and Crime Commissioner elections | 2024-05-02 | pcc_elections | GAP | Pre-dates KPM. PCC methodology not built. |
| 2024 English metropolitan mayoral elections | 2024-05-02 | metro_mayoral_elections | GAP | Pre-dates KPM. Metro mayoral methodology not built. |
| May 2024 English local elections | 2024-05-02 | uk_english_local_elections | GAP | Pre-dates KPM-1. Could be retrospectively backtested with v15.1 if vote-share data ingested. |
Methodology gaps (not yet built)
Notable misses we want on the record
- Norwich: we predicted No overall control, actual was Green. Green breakthrough (model did not anticipate)
- Hackney: we predicted No overall control, actual was Green. Green breakthrough (model did not anticipate)
- Lewisham: we predicted No overall control, actual was Green. Green breakthrough (model did not anticipate)
- Waltham Forest: we predicted No overall control, actual was Green. Green breakthrough (model did not anticipate)
- Hastings: we predicted No overall control, actual was Green. Green breakthrough (model did not anticipate)
- Kent CC - Cliftonville: we predicted Reform UK, actual was Green. Green breakthrough (model did not anticipate)
- Rossendale BC - Hareholme and Waterfoot: we predicted Reform UK, actual was Green. Green breakthrough (model did not anticipate)
- Essex: we predicted No overall control, actual was Reform UK. Reform breakthrough
All predictions
| Subject | Election | Predicted | Actual | Outcome | Methodology | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Scottish Parliament election |
2026-05-07 scottish_parliament_election
|
SNP | SNP | HIT | KPM-scotparl v1.0 | ec1c3ec273… |
| 2026 Senedd election (Wales) |
2026-05-07 welsh_senedd_election
|
Labour | Plaid Cymru | MISS | KPM-senedd v1.0 | e535067d74… |
| Adur South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Adur South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Adur |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Adur |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Adur |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Adur |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Adur |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Adur |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Adur |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Adur |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Barking and Dagenham Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Barking and Dagenham Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Barking and Dagenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Barking and Dagenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Barking and Dagenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Barking and Dagenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Barking and Dagenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Barking and Dagenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Barking and Dagenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Barking and Dagenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Barnet Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Barnet Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Barnet |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Barnet |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Barnet |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Barnet |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Barnet |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Barnet |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Barnet |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Barnet |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Barnsley Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Barnsley Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Barnsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Barnsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Barnsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Barnsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Barnsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Barnsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Barnsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Barnsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Basildon East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Basildon East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Basildon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Basildon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Basildon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Basildon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Basildon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Basildon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Basildon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Basildon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Basingstoke and Deane South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Basingstoke and Deane South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bexley Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Bexley Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Birmingham West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Birmingham West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Birmingham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Birmingham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Birmingham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Birmingham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Birmingham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Birmingham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Birmingham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Birmingham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Blackburn with Darwen North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Blackburn with Darwen North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bolton North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Bolton North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bolton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Bolton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Bolton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Bolton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Bolton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Bolton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Bolton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Bolton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Bradford Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Bradford Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bradford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Bradford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Bradford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Bradford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Bradford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Bradford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Bradford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Bradford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Brent Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Brent Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Brent |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Brent |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Brent |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Brent |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Brent |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Brent |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Brent |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Brent |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Brentwood East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Brentwood East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bromley Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Bromley Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bromley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Conservative | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Bromley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Conservative | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Bromley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Conservative | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Bromley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Conservative | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Bromley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Conservative | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Bromley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Conservative | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Bromley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Conservative | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Bromley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Conservative | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Broxbourne East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Broxbourne East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Burnley North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Burnley North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bury North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Bury North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bury |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Bury |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Bury |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Bury |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Bury |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Bury |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Bury |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Bury |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Calderdale Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Calderdale Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Calderdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Calderdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Calderdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Calderdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Calderdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Calderdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Calderdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Calderdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Cambridge East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Cambridge East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Camden Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Camden Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Camden |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Camden |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Camden |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Camden |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Camden |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Camden |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Camden |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Camden |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Cannock Chase West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Cannock Chase West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Cheltenham South West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Cheltenham South West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Cheltenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Cheltenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Cheltenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Cheltenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Cheltenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Cheltenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Cheltenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Cheltenham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Cherwell South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Cherwell South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Chorley North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Chorley North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Colchester East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Colchester East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Coventry West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Coventry West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Coventry |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Coventry |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Coventry |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Coventry |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Coventry |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Coventry |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Coventry |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Coventry |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Crawley South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Toss-up
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Crawley South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Croydon Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Croydon Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Croydon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Croydon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Croydon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Croydon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Croydon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Croydon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Croydon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Croydon |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Dudley West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Dudley West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Dudley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Dudley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Dudley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Dudley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Dudley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Dudley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Dudley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Dudley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Ealing Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Ealing Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| East Surrey South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Lean
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| East Surrey South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| East Sussex South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| East Sussex South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Eastleigh South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Eastleigh South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Eastleigh |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Eastleigh |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Eastleigh |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Eastleigh |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Eastleigh |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Eastleigh |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Eastleigh |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Eastleigh |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Enfield Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Enfield Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Enfield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Enfield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Enfield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Enfield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Enfield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Enfield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Enfield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Enfield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Epping Forest East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Epping Forest East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Essex East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Essex East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Exeter South West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Exeter South West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Fareham South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Fareham South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Gateshead North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Gateshead North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Gateshead |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Gateshead |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Gateshead |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Gateshead |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Gateshead |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Gateshead |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Gateshead |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Gateshead |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Gosport South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Gosport South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Greenwich Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Greenwich Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hackney Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Green | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hackney Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Green | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Halton North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Halton North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hammersmith and Fulham Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hammersmith and Fulham Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hampshire South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hampshire South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Haringey Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Haringey Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Harlow East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Harlow East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Harrow Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Harrow Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hart South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hart South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hartlepool North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hartlepool North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hartlepool |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Hartlepool |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Hartlepool |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Hartlepool |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Hartlepool |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Hartlepool |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Hartlepool |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Hartlepool |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Hastings South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Green Toss-up
|
Green | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hastings South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Green | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Havant South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Havant South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Havering Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Havering Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hillingdon Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hillingdon Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hounslow Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hounslow Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Huntingdonshire East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Huntingdonshire East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Hyndburn North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Hyndburn North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Ipswich East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Ipswich East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Isle of Wight South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Isle of Wight South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Islington Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Islington Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Kensington and Chelsea Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Kensington and Chelsea Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Kingston upon Hull Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Kingston upon Hull Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Kingston upon Thames Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Kingston upon Thames Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Kingston upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Kingston upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Kingston upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Kingston upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Kingston upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Kingston upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Kingston upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Kingston upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Kirklees Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Kirklees Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Kirklees |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Kirklees |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Kirklees |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Kirklees |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Kirklees |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Kirklees |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Kirklees |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Kirklees |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Knowsley North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Knowsley North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Knowsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Knowsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Knowsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Knowsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Knowsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Knowsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Knowsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Knowsley |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Lambeth Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Lambeth Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Leeds Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Leeds Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Leeds |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Leeds |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Leeds |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Leeds |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Leeds |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Leeds |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Leeds |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Leeds |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Lewisham Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Green | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Lewisham Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Green | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Lincoln East Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Lincoln East Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Manchester North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Manchester North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Manchester |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Manchester |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Manchester |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Manchester |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Manchester |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Manchester |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Manchester |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Manchester |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Merton Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Merton Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Merton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Merton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Merton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Merton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Merton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Merton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Merton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Merton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Milton Keynes South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Milton Keynes South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Newcastle upon Tyne |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Newham Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Newham Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Norfolk East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Norfolk East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| North East Lincolnshire Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| North East Lincolnshire Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| North Tyneside North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| North Tyneside North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Norwich East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Green | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Norwich East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Green | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Nuneaton and Bedworth West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Nuneaton and Bedworth West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Oldham North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Oldham North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Oldham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Independent | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Oldham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Oldham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Oldham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Oldham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Oldham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Oldham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Oldham |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Oxford South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Oxford South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Pendle North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Pendle North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Peterborough East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Peterborough East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Plymouth South West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Plymouth South West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Portsmouth South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Portsmouth South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Preston North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Preston North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Reading South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Reading South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Redbridge Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Redbridge Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Redditch West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Redditch West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Richmond upon Thames Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Richmond upon Thames Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Richmond upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Richmond upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Richmond upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Richmond upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Richmond upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Richmond upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Richmond upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Richmond upon Thames |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Rochdale North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Rochdale North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Rochdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Rochdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Rochdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Rochdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Rochdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Rochdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Rochdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Rochdale |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Rochford East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Rochford East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Rugby West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Rugby West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Rushmoor South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Rushmoor South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Salford North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Salford North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Salford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Salford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Salford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Salford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Salford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Salford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Salford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Salford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Sandwell West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Sandwell West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Sandwell |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Sandwell |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Sandwell |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Sandwell |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Sandwell |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Sandwell |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Sandwell |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Sandwell |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Sefton North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Sefton North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Sefton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Sefton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Sefton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Sefton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Sefton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Sefton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Sefton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Sefton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Sheffield Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Sheffield Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Sheffield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Sheffield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Sheffield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Sheffield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Sheffield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Sheffield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Sheffield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Sheffield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Solihull West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Solihull West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Solihull |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Solihull |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Solihull |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Solihull |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Solihull |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Solihull |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Solihull |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Solihull |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| South Cambridgeshire East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| South Cambridgeshire East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| South Cambridgeshire |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| South Cambridgeshire |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| South Cambridgeshire |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| South Cambridgeshire |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| South Cambridgeshire |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| South Cambridgeshire |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| South Cambridgeshire |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| South Cambridgeshire |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| South Tyneside North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| South Tyneside North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Southampton South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Southampton South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Southend-on-Sea East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Southend-on-Sea East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Southwark Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Southwark Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| St Albans East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| St Albans East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| St Helens North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| St Helens North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| St Helens |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| St Helens |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| St Helens |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| St Helens |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| St Helens |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| St Helens |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| St Helens |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| St Helens |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Stevenage East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Stevenage East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Stockport North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Stockport North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Stockport |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Stockport |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Stockport |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Stockport |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Stockport |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Stockport |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Stockport |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Stockport |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Suffolk East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Toss-up
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Suffolk East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Sunderland North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Sunderland North East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Sunderland |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Sunderland |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Sunderland |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Sunderland |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Sunderland |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Sunderland |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Sunderland |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Sunderland |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Sutton Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Sutton Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Sutton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Sutton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Sutton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Sutton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Sutton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Sutton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Sutton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Sutton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat | Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Swindon South West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Swindon South West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Tameside North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Tameside North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Tameside |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Tameside |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Tameside |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Tameside |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Tameside |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Tameside |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Tameside |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Tameside |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | No overall control | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Tamworth West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Tamworth West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Three Rivers East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Three Rivers East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Thurrock East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Thurrock East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Tower Hamlets Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Aspire | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Tower Hamlets Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Aspire | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Trafford North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Trafford North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Trafford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Trafford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Trafford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Trafford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Trafford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Trafford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Trafford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Trafford |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Tunbridge Wells South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Tunbridge Wells South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Wakefield Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Wakefield Yorkshire and The Humber
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Wakefield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Wakefield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Wakefield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Wakefield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Wakefield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Wakefield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Wakefield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Wakefield |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Reform UK | HIT | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Walsall West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Walsall West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Walsall |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Walsall |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Walsall |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Walsall |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Walsall |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Walsall |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Walsall |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Walsall |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control | Reform UK | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Waltham Forest Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Green | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Waltham Forest Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Green | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Wandsworth Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Wandsworth Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Watford East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Watford East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Welwyn Hatfield East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Welwyn Hatfield East of England
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| West Lancashire North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| West Lancashire North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| West Oxfordshire South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| West Oxfordshire South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| West Surrey South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Toss-up
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| West Surrey South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
n/a | n/a | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| West Sussex South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Conservative Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| West Sussex South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
No overall control | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Westminster Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Westminster Greater London
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Conservative | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Wigan North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Toss-up
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Wigan North West
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Wigan |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Wigan |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Wigan |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Wigan |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Wigan |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | Labour | HIT | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Wigan |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Wigan |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Wigan |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | Labour | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Winchester South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Winchester South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Wokingham South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Wokingham South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Wolverhampton West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Wolverhampton West Midlands
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour Lean
|
No overall control | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Wolverhampton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17-ward-uns v1.0 | e38adc8efd… |
| Wolverhampton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.1-ward-uns-overlay v1.1 | 6da9262505… |
| Wolverhampton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.3-ward-uns-reform-no-incumbency v1.3 | 467c294263… |
| Wolverhampton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.6-council-reform-override v1.6 | 141c405a9c… |
| Wolverhampton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Labour | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.7-io-census-indep v1.7-io | 3d9435e5c4… |
| Wolverhampton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.8-brexit v1.8 | f71a4cd17e… |
| Wolverhampton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.9-brexit-and-indep v1.9 | 0df615a23e… |
| Wolverhampton |
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK | No overall control | MISS | KPM-v17.10-ensemble v1.10 | 2ea86b8d1e… |
| Worthing South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-1 v1.0 | a27277bc55… |
| Worthing South East
|
2026-05-07 uk_council_election
|
No overall control NOC
|
Labour | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 BACKTEST | 52df676e79… |
| Bude-Stratton TC - Stratton South West
|
2026-04-30 uk_council_byelection
|
Liberal Democrat Confident
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Bude-Stratton TC - Stratton South West
|
2026-04-30 uk_council_byelection
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Malvern Hills DC - Tenbury West Midlands
|
2026-04-30 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Confident
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Malvern Hills DC - Tenbury West Midlands
|
2026-04-30 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Newport TC - Newport South (Telford & Wrekin) West Midlands
|
2026-04-30 uk_council_byelection
|
Liberal Democrat Toss-up
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Newport TC - Newport South (Telford & Wrekin) West Midlands
|
2026-04-30 uk_council_byelection
|
No overall control NOC
|
Liberal Democrat | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| St Ives TC - West South West
|
2026-04-30 uk_council_byelection
|
Liberal Democrat Confident
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| St Ives TC - West South West
|
2026-04-30 uk_council_byelection
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Cornwall UA - Newquay Porth & Tretherras South West
|
2026-04-23 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Cornwall UA - Newquay Porth & Tretherras South West
|
2026-04-23 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Salford BC - Barton & Winton North West
|
2026-04-22 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Confident
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Salford BC - Barton & Winton North West
|
2026-04-22 uk_council_byelection
|
No overall control NOC
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Leicestershire CC - Narborough & Whetstone East Midlands
|
2026-04-16 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Leicestershire CC - Narborough & Whetstone East Midlands
|
2026-04-16 uk_council_byelection
|
No overall control NOC
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Northumberland UA - Cramlington South West North East
|
2026-04-16 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Conservaties | MISS | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Northumberland UA - Cramlington South West North East
|
2026-04-16 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Conservaties | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Kent CC - Cliftonville South East
|
2026-04-09 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Toss-up
|
Green | MISS | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Kent CC - Cliftonville South East
|
2026-04-09 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Green | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Luton BC - Wigmore East of England
|
2026-04-02 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Reform UK | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Luton BC - Wigmore East of England
|
2026-04-02 uk_council_byelection
|
No overall control NOC
|
Reform UK | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| North Devon DC - Fremington South West
|
2026-04-02 uk_council_byelection
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| North Devon DC - Fremington South West
|
2026-04-02 uk_council_byelection
|
Liberal Democrat Lean
|
Liberal Democrat | HIT | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| Rossendale BC - Hareholme and Waterfoot North West
|
2026-04-02 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Green | MISS | KPM-byelection v1.0 | 49fca21295… |
| Rossendale BC - Hareholme and Waterfoot North West
|
2026-04-02 uk_council_byelection
|
Reform UK Lean
|
Green | MISS | KPM-2.2 v15.1 | 52df676e79… |
| 2024 London mayoral election |
2024-05-02 london_mayoral_election
|
Labour Lean
|
Labour | HIT | KPM-mayoral v1.0 | 9b4f7c0d1f… |
Why this exists
Falsifiability over polish
Pollsters and AI labs are full of predictions you can't verify after the fact. We commit hashes before events so that, win or lose, the original prediction is on the public record.
Misses are deposits
We predicted Bradford as Labour. It went NOC. We predicted Hackney/Lewisham/Waltham Forest as Labour. Greens won majorities. These misses are part of the record alongside the hits, that is how trust accumulates.
Methodology evolves in public
Each methodology version has a SHA-256 hash. Successor versions show their lift over the prior version transparently. Backtests are marked as backtests, never as pre-registered predictions.
The pattern is the product
This scorecard is the prototype for the kronaxis trust seal. Every other product, Forge, Assay, Living Personas, applies the same discipline: pre-registered, hashed, falsifiable claims with full audit trails.